MarketEdge AM Comments

Good Morning.  Corn futures were lower and soybean futures were higher overnight.  September corn finished the overnight session off 4 ½ cents, settling at 4.7175.  November soybeans were up 2 ½ cents, settling at 13.63.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 380 points, trading at 103.798.  October crude oil is off 10 cents, trading at $78.79 per barrel.  Precious metals are all lower.  Industrial metals are higher, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 67 points, trading at 34,455.  Soybean futures were the upside leader overnight, continuing to be supported by extremely hot and dry US Midwest weather.  Meanwhile, corn is under pressure in reaction to ProFarmer Crop Tour results.  Although corn yields reported from the crop tour this week have consistently failed to meet USDA’s current yield forecasts, save for South Dakota, they have also consistently outperformed last year’s tour findings, so far.  The ProFarmer Tour has a reputation of underestimating corn yields when compared to final actual harvested yield figures.  Last year’s final national average corn yield was 173.3bpa.  If this week’s tour is consistently beating last year’s tour’s corn yield estimates, isn’t it entirely plausible that USDA’s current yield forecast of 175.1bpa could well be attainable?  It’s something to ponder, if nothing else.  Today, on the final day of the tour, crop scouts will be active in Central and Northeastern Iowa and in Southern Minnesota.  This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report.  This week’s report featured a strong week of new crop corn and soybean sales.  Last week, old crop corn sales cancellations outweighed new sales, resulting in a net weekly sales figure of -22,700MT.  This figure failed to meet the lowest trade estimate and was down noticeably from both the previous week’s sales and the prior four-week average.  For the 2023/24 marketing year, 673,500MT of corn was booked for sale last week.  This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations.  Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 496,500MT.  This figure is 12% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 1% higher than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, China, Honduras, and Canada.  Last week, 364,900MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is over 150,000MT higher than the highest trade estimate, is down noticeably from the previous week’s sales, but is up noticeably from the prior four-week average.  For the 2023/24 marketing year, 1,218,200MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week.  This figure is on the very upper end of the range of trade expectations.  Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 449,200MT.  This figure is 54% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 40% higher than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Indonesia.  Yesterday, the funds bought 6000 contracts of corn, bought 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 4000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 77,624 contracts of corn, net long 70,190 contracts of soybeans, and net short 67,435 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.7175, followed by the two-year-plus contract low charted on Tuesday, 4.61.  Initial resistance is at 4.80, followed by Monday’s high, 4.93, and then the three-week high charted on the 11^th, 4.9475.  November soybeans find initial support at 13.50, followed by yesterday’s low, 13.3250, and then the double-low charted last Tuesday and Wednesday, 13.03.  Initial resistance is in the 13.72-13.73 area, followed by the high for the month charted on Monday, 13.81, and then the psychological 14.00 level.  Opening calls are mixed.
 
Have a great Thursday.